Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has said that in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress will lead the opposition alliance and defeat the BJP. Now the question is whether the opposition will be united in 2024. If we look at the arithmetic of seats and votes, the challenges of the Congress and the opposition become clear.
BJP has full majority governments in Gujarat, Karnataka and Uttarakhand. NDA is more than 50 percent in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh Haryana, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Tripura. In Maharashtra, Meghalaya and Mizoram, the NDA is less than 50 percent. If we look at the Congress, it has absolute majority governments in Himachal Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. There is a coalition government in Rajasthan. The UPA is less than 50 percent in Jharkhand.
There are governments of regional parties in Punjab, Bihar, West Bengal, Delhi, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, direct contest between Congress and BJP is in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Karnataka. There are 100 such seats in these states, out of which BJP is ahead in 93. The regional parties tell the Congress that wherever you are in a direct contest, you lose. That’s why don’t call yourself chief.
In Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Tripura and Jammu and Kashmir, Congress party is in alliance but it is not the main party. BJP is in a strong alliance in these states. Out of 172 seats in these states, BJP and its alliance partners are ahead in 83 seats.
In some places, the Congress is in the third position in the triangular fight. That is, if he makes an alliance with the main party, then maybe something will happen. Such is the situation in Delhi, Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh. Out of 112 seats in these states, BJP is ahead in 37 seats. The problem is that no one wants to go with the Congress in these states. Regional parties say that why should we give seats, we have worked hard. That is, the regional player has saved his stronghold more strongly than the Congress.
Punjab and Gujarat are the states where the Congress is second in the triangular fight. BJP is ahead in 30 out of 39 seats in these states. That is, if the Congress forms an alliance here, then some things may be possible. But the Congress has a problem with this agreement. Regional parties say why you should take everything.